India Enters a New Demographic Phase as Fertility Falls Below Replacement Level

India Records Historic Decline in Fertility Rate

India Enters a New Demographic Phase as Fertility Falls Below Replacement Level: India has entered a significant demographic phase as its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) declined to 1.9 children per woman in 2024, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time. The findings are part of the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024, released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India.

A fertility rate below the replacement level indicates that, without migration, a population will eventually stabilize and may begin to decline over the long term. The trend reflects changing socio-economic conditions, improved healthcare, rising education levels, and greater access to family planning.

Static GK Fact: The Sample Registration System (SRS) is India’s largest demographic survey and serves as the primary source of annual estimates on fertility and mortality.

Regional Differences Continue to Shape Population Trends

Although the national fertility rate has fallen, major regional disparities remain. Bihar recorded the highest TFR of 2.9, while Delhi registered the country’s lowest at 1.2.

Southern states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu have already completed an advanced demographic transition, characterized by lower birth rates, longer life expectancy, and an ageing population. In contrast, northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to have younger populations and relatively higher fertility levels.

Static GK Tip: Replacement Level Fertility (2.1) is the average number of children required per woman to maintain a stable population size across generations.

General Fertility Rate and Child Mortality Improve

The report also highlights a decline in the General Fertility Rate (GFR) from 78.8 during 2012–14 to 64.6 in 2022–24, indicating fewer births among women aged 15–49 years.

Child survival has improved nationally, but disparities persist. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) of 41, whereas Kerala reported the lowest at 9. Rural areas continue to experience higher child mortality than urban regions due to unequal access to healthcare, nutrition, and sanitation.

Ageing Population Presents New Challenges

Lower fertility has accelerated population ageing, particularly in southern India. Around 15.1% of Kerala’s population and 14.2% of Tamil Nadu’s population are now aged 60 years and above.

An ageing society demands stronger pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, elderly care services, and social security measures. Policymakers will increasingly need to balance the needs of both younger and older populations.

Institutional Deliveries Increase but Healthcare Gaps Remain

The report records encouraging progress in maternal healthcare. Around 71.7% of births now take place in government hospitals, reflecting the success of public health initiatives such as the Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) and improvements in healthcare infrastructure.

However, neonatal mortality remains a major concern. Nearly 72.8% of infant deaths occur within the first 28 days of life, highlighting the need for better maternal care, skilled birth attendance, and newborn healthcare.

The report also reveals that 45.5% of deaths still occur without qualified medical attention, indicating persistent healthcare accessibility challenges in several parts of the country.

Static GK Fact: Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) was launched in 2005 under the National Health Mission (NHM) to promote institutional deliveries and reduce maternal and infant mortality.

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India Enters a New Demographic Phase as Fertility Falls Below Replacement Level: