New Direction in Monsoon Prediction
AI Pilot Advancing Local Monsoon Onset Forecasting: The government has launched an AI-enabled pilot to improve local monsoon onset forecasting ahead of the Kharif 2025 season. This initiative aims to strengthen early decision-making for farmers by offering precise and localised rainfall advisories.
Static GK fact: India’s southwest monsoon typically covers the entire country by mid-July, influencing over 50% of cropped area.
Blended AI Framework
A blended forecasting framework formed the core of the pilot. It combined Google’s NeuralGCM, ECMWF’s Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, and 125 years of IMD rainfall data. The integration produced probabilistic forecasts, enabling farmers to estimate likely rainfall windows and adjust sowing timelines accordingly.
Static GK Tip: The IMD was established in 1875 and is headquartered in New Delhi.
Multi-State Dissemination
The forecasts were disseminated via the M-Kisan portal, sending SMS advisories to 3.88 crore farmers across 13 states. Forecasts were shared in Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla and Punjabi for wider reach. The pilot focused purely on forecast communication without financial assistance or subsidies.
Behavioural Shifts Among Farmers
Survey responses collected through Kisan Call Centres in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar indicated that 31–52% of farmers modified decisions based on AI forecasts. They adjusted land preparation, sowing periods, crop choices, and input use. This behavioural shift highlights the potential of AI tools to strengthen climate resilience at the farm level.
Static GK fact: Kisan Call Centres (KCCs) were launched in 2004 to offer real-time advisory support to farmers.
Strengthening Tech-Driven Agriculture
The initiative was highlighted in the Lok Sabha by Minister of State for Agriculture Ramnath Thakur, acknowledging its potential in shaping AI-driven advisory systems for climate-smart farming. The pilot aligns with India’s broader push toward digital and data-based agricultural transformation.
Static GK Tip: Agriculture contributes around 15% to India’s GDP, while supporting nearly 50% of the workforce.
Significance for Future Monsoon Strategy
Localised AI-based forecasts can play a major role in reducing weather-related uncertainties that affect sowing and yield outcomes. By scaling such systems, India can boost its preparedness for variable monsoons in the era of climate change. The pilot serves as a template for future innovations that can bridge forecast accuracy gaps at the village level.
Static Usthadian Current Affairs Table
AI Pilot Advancing Local Monsoon Onset Forecasting:
| Topic | Detail |
| AI pilot purpose | Improve local monsoon onset forecasting for Kharif 2025 |
| Key AI models used | NeuralGCM, ECMWF-AIFS with IMD’s 125-year rainfall data |
| Forecast type | Probabilistic local monsoon onset projections |
| Farmer outreach | 3.88 crore farmers across 13 states |
| Dissemination channel | M-Kisan SMS platform |
| Languages used | Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla, Punjabi |
| Survey insights | 31–52% farmers changed decisions based on forecasts |
| States surveyed | Madhya Pradesh and Bihar |
| Ministry statement | Highlighted by Minister Ramnath Thakur in Lok Sabha |
| Broader aim | Support climate-smart agriculture through AI-driven advisories |
