India Becomes Most Populous as Fertility Falls Below Replacement

India reaches population milestone

India Becomes Most Populous as Fertility Falls Below Replacement: India’s population has officially hit 1.46 billion in 2025, overtaking China as the most populous country in the world. This shift is not just about numbers—it reflects changing social patterns, falling fertility, and rising life expectancy. According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion around the early 2060s before it starts declining gradually.

Fertility rate falls below replacement

The report brings a major update: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is now 1.9 births per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This means Indian women, on average, are having fewer children than needed to keep the population steady over generations. This trend isn’t sudden—it’s the result of years of social reform, education, and better access to reproductive healthcare.

The UN’s view on fertility changes

The UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled “The Real Fertility Crisis,” argues that declining fertility isn’t a problem to panic about. Instead, the focus should be on supporting people in achieving the family size they desire, ensuring informed reproductive choices, and creating systems that support women and families.

India’s population composition

India’s demographic breakdown shows a country in transformation:

• 24% of people are aged 0–14
• 17% are aged 10–19
• 26% fall into the 10–24 age group
• A strong 68% are in the working-age category (15–64)

This is a golden window for India. With two-thirds of the population in the working-age group, the country has a real opportunity to reap the demographic dividend—if jobs, skills, and social support systems align properly.

Life expectancy and elderly rise

As fertility falls, life expectancy is climbing. In 2025, Indian men live up to 71 years, while women live up to 74 years. This is also leading to a rising elderly population, currently at 7%, which will expand with time. India will need better elderly care, pensions, and health infrastructure to match this shift.

How India got here?

In the 1960s, women in India had an average of six children. The population stood at around 436 million. Contraception was rare, and education for girls was limited. Fast forward to now, India’s progress is clear:

• Girls’ education rates have increased
• Access to healthcare and family planning improved
• Women are more involved in decision-making

Today, most Indian women have around two children, showing a historic transition in fertility behaviour.

Still work to be done

Despite the gains, many women still lack full control over their reproductive choices, especially in rural and poor areas. Inequalities across states and communities remain deep. The path ahead must focus on giving every woman the right and resources to decide freely.

A hopeful future

The UNFPA’s India Representative, Andrea M. Wojnar, sees India’s progress as an example for the world. With its growing economy and population shift, India is in a powerful position to lead by example—linking reproductive rights with economic development.

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